The Humane Ai Pin: Opening Act, or Funeral?

After Humane’s Ai Pin Launch, is it (Laser) Lights Out for Their Future?

I’ve heard it a million times before: “so and so was a ‘product rockstar’ at Google, or Apple or, [enter multinational tech company here].”

Most of the time, I don’t place a ton of stock in hearing this. Behemoth companies have a relative handful of rockstars and many more pretenders who contribute subjectively when it comes to growth. It’s impossible to assess their prowess unless they were something like “head of AI at Facebook”. Many of these 'rockstars' have failed miserably to launch category defining products when left to their own devices (yes, I meant that pun).

However, in the case of Bethany Bongiorno and her husband Imran Chaudhry – Humane's co-founders – this is far from the case. Imran was lead designer on many of Apple’s products and Bethany rose to become a Director of iOS and MacOS software engineering at the same. They both contributed meaningfully and visibly.

And unless they are part of some secret club, they made some adept moves in raising $241 million.

So why did they fail so badly in launching the Ai Pin?

Or…[pause for suspense] did they fail? [dun, dun, duuuuuunnnnnnn]

I know they didn’t plan for Co-Founder Imran to stand around with one of the largest tech reviewers on YouTube (Mrwhosetheboss, 18.4 million subs) looking like this:

The Ai Pin actually guess 14 nuggets. That's still a lot of missing data when it comes to your arteries being at risk.

Or saying this:

Co-Founder Imran Chaudhry in response to one of Mrwhosetheboss' many complaints on his company's Ai Pin

All in all, it was one of the worst launches in tech history with the capstone being YouTube titan Marques Brownlee launching a video titled “The Worst Product I’ve Ever Reviewed” to his 18.7 million subs. Tell us how you really feel, Marques!

This was followed by a hale of technology press articles asking why Ai Pin existed, and worse, betting against the prospect of it ever finding out. The headlines are just too brutal to keep repeating without a parental advisory warning.

So…is Ai Pin and/or Humane dead?

I wouldn’t bet on it. Their impact may be smaller than the revolution they were promising, but there is a good chance they will find their footing.

While I don’t think launch week was in any way, shape, or form part of their plan, I am betting they are sitting on a sizable war chest of cash. That said, it's not a blank check and burn rates have a certain violence.

Humane will likely have to pull way back on Ai Pin without admitting defeat, or they will risk massive waves of returns and cancellations burning their cash before they can properly pivot.

And they need to get the right voices to join Humane.

Building Up Humane's Strategy, and Tearing it Apart

We're doing a buildup and tear down of a 30,000 foot view of Humane's future in a series we're calling "Outsider Vision". In this series, we'll use one of our most commonly used tools (McKinsey's "Three Horizons") to take a somewhat educated guess – but completely a guess – at what Humane will do over the next four or so years.

Why do I think they can survive, and what will they do next? Amidst a full-on assault in the press, I kept hearing the cofounders say a single word. And I caught glimpse of this strategy on video footage of computers at Humane HQ:

“Platform”

They didn’t mention it very much but I caught it.

It tells me:

A. They probably knew the device launch was premature, but not this premature…or they would have focused more on trumpeting upcoming platform capabilities, like recording nutritional choices;

B. They have deeper plans to go into different fractals of user experience via a highly useful software platform that allows people to track, model, remember, and generally optimize some of the most important functions in life.

I believe they are trying to supplant phone use and become a new option in mobile telephony, but I also think they bit off more of that massive prospect than they should have at once.

So what does the future look like?

My bet is smaller, more focused, and…more careful.

In General, I think we can expect:

An adjustment away from saying "AI" everywhere and away from leaning on it as a central feature;
Focus on more narrow use cases for their platform;
Working with phones, not against them;
The launch of more narrowly-focused devices with their war chest…but not too many SKUs at once.

Here's what I bet their Three Horizons looks like:

The company has to execute well on a very careful and considered plan. We do this all day for venture clients at Method Five Labs and hope this helps Humane!

Horizon One (Current Year Activities)

It’s obvious where Humane currently is…not in the place they’d imagined. They launched the Ai Pin which in many ways is a technological marvel but also threatens to double as an albatross.

On Horizon One they have:

Humane Ai Pin (Launched)

Wearable device with Ai
Meant to supplant mobile phone in many cases

Where I think they will go next:

Humane Ai Pin Accessories

Launch of accessories for Ai Pin to bolster perception that the device is here to stay. They don’t have have to sell a ton of these (ex: silicone case maybe with a cooling gel). They just have to look like they are committed to innovating on current models.

Humane Life Suite (I made this up for illustrative purposes...sue me...no, please don't)

Probably before they launch accessories, they will launch a branded software platform that is narrowly focused. A good use case may be weight loss and nutrition-focused users. They may also look at partners here like metabolic health platform Veri.
Humane LifeSuite may be used to enhance the value of the Ai Pin’s wireless plan. They will probably bundle it inside of that $24 a month price they have already established via their partnership with T-Mobile.

Will they be done innovating at this point? Absolutely not.

They won’t even be fiscally stable. The current device is not on-target enough to support their future. But what they would do with moves such as these is to push back against public perception that they launched the world’s coolest paperweight. Horizon One — the things they can do this year — are all about perception, and preparation for the next phase of execution.

Horizon Two is roughly 2025-2026. I’ll be dropping a deeper look into this Horizon on Monday, but here’s a hint: I think they slowly kill off version one of AiPin at this point in favor of something else. In fact, I’d be surprised if the Co-Founders aren’t already dreaming about it in their sleep.

Horizon One: save face and stabilize.

Horizon Two: launch what should have been "now that we know what we know".